...for now
The Retail Think Tank (RTT), which produces a quarterly Retail Health Index, has called the bottom of the UK retail market, but hasn't ruled out a double-dip recession in this sector.
While the state of retail health in the UK in quarter two declined once more, it was still was two points better than the RTT had predicted at its April meeting. On that basis, it's predicting the retail market will stabilise in Q3.
"After the sudden and dramatic drop in retail health in autumn 2008 we have seen the rate of decline ease off," said RTT member Vicky Redwood. "We are hopeful after the fall of just one point in quarter two, that quarter three will see the end of the decline for now."
"Once again British shoppers have surprised us with their resilience. The majority of the consumer spending adjustment is taking place off the high street, with the exception of big ticket items. Whilst we are currently experiencing a return of relatively clement conditions, the big issues and their potential impact remain hidden around the corner. Given this, nobody can afford to be too bullish."
Here's a graph showing the fluctuations in the Retail Health Index over the past few years. Click through to the next page for some more positive indicators.
