Selective hype
Speaking at the MobileBeat conference in San Francisco, the chief exec of independent mobile application store GetJar told the BBC website "Apps will be as big if not bigger than the internet."
While allowing for Ilja Laurs' vested interest in making such a claim, the speed with which Apple's App Store reached its one billionth download implies there is serious momentum behind the mobile phone application market.
The dawn of the next generation of smartphones with greatly improved processors and graphics also means the scope of these apps, for both games and practical applications like location-based services, will be much broader.
However, Laurs also predicts that the market has a long way to go before maturity and that the vast majority of developers are destined to never be profitable. "They will peak at around 100,000 by the end of the year," he told the BBC.
"That will be a tipping point and after that there will be a gradual fall in the rate of development. The full blossom will come in ten years and mobile apps will become as popular as websites are today with consumers.
"The reality is that this space is only so big and only able to support so many people. Unfortunately the overhype that goes with [Apple's] App Store is what has driven so many to rush to develop for the market. It is fashionable to do apps and every media outlet tells you apps are cool. But the economics are a different story. The ratio of those developers who will fail is about 90%; they will simply not make a return on their investment or make a good enough living at this."
