The end of the beginning
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) and international economic club representing most of the world's developed, democratic countries, reckons we're pretty close to the bottom of the global downturn.
In a report published today it warned, however, that "The ensuing recovery is likely to be both weak and fragile for some time. And the negative economic and social consequences of the crisis will be long-lasting." But it also said things could have been worse.
The recovery seems to be being led by non-OECD countries, especially China, but it looks like US economic activity will bottom-out during the second half of 2009. The scaling back of Keynesian fiscal stimulus and the need for governments and banks to repair their balance sheets means that the recovery is expected to be very weak and slow.
Europe seems to be lagging behind a bit; with rising unemployment making consumers reluctant to spend any more than is absolutely necessary. This report is revising up projections for the US, Japan and non-OECD countries, but not Europe. It expects most countries, bar Japan, to escape deflation.
