The pollsters are predicting an Obama victory in the US presidential election currently underway. The chances are that this eventuality is already priced into shares, but there are a couple of eventualities that still might have an immediate effect on stock markets.
The first is obviously a McCain victory. This would probably unsettle markets due to the surprise as much as anything else. Also, given that Bankageddon happened under a Republican administration, it would probably be viewed as a negative development for America's beleaguered economy.
The second would be an Obama landslide. With a weak mandate there's only so much change Obama can try to implement but with a strong one he might be encouraged to be bolder - not that that's always the case as we found out in 1997.
Anyway, here are our stocks at close of trading on Election Day. Note how nearly everyone has done well in the past couple of days. Is this in anticipation of an Obama victory or has a bit of stability returned to the markets or what? Ask us another. We'll have another look in 24 hours and see if the result has had much impact.
Company | Listing | Share price 20/10/08 | Share price 27/10/08 | Share price 3/11/08 | Share price 4/11/08 | 2-day change | Market cap (bn) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMD | AMD | 4.21 | 3.03 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 8.6% | 2.31 |
Apple | AAPL | 97.40 | 96.38 | 107.59 | 110.99 | 3.2% | 98.60 |
Avnet | AVT | 17.11 | 14.97 | 16.74 | 17.30 | 3.3% | 2.61 |
Dell | DELL | 13.04 | 11.50 | 12.20 | 12.93 | 6.0% | 25.32 |
GOOG | 372.54 | 339.29 | 359.36 | 366.94 | 2.1% | 115.38 | |
HP | HPQ | 39.71 | 32.44 | 38.28 | 38.24 | -0.1% | 93.65 |
IBM | IBM | 90.78 | 82.07 | 92.97 | 93.40 | 0.5% | 125.48 |
Ingram Micro | IM | 12.73 | 12.72 | 13.33 | 14.19 | 6.5% | 2.35 |
Intel | INTC | 15.50 | 14.28 | 16.03 | 16.26 | 1.4% | 90.44 |
Microsoft | MSFT | 23.93 | 21.96 | 22.33 | 23.53 | 5.4% | 209.31 |
Nvidia | NVDA | 7.65 | 6.61 | 8.76 | 8.98 | 2.5% | 5.00 |
Tech Data | TECD | 21.96 | 20.32 | 21.45 | 22.31 | 4.0% | 1.13 |
Yahoo | YHOO | 12.90 | 12.10 | 12.82 | 13.35 | 4.1% | 18.50 |
Dow | .DJI | 8852.22 | 8378.95 | 9325.01 | 9625.28 | 3.2% | N/A |
FTSE 100 | .FTSE | 4119.35 | 3705.53 | 4363.97 | 4639.50 | 6.3% | N/A |
NASDAQ | .IXIC | 1711.29 | 1552.03 | 1720.95 | 1780.12 | 3.4% | N/A |